Most people have been taught over the course of their lifetime to see things linearly. We are taught that there is a cause and then an effect. We learn about beginning and then an end. We see a problem and then a solution. We witness birth and then death. After a rise comes a fall. From every action brings a reaction.

We often simplify things so that they fit into this model of thinking. We see two variables out of the many involved in any situation. This is considered linear thinking.

The problem with linear thinking is that it is too narrow. It ignores the complex system and instead focuses on an aspect of a system. Reality says that there is much more at any given time than a simple start and finish or cause and effect. Yet linear thinking leads us to believe that is all we need to know or understand.

Weather Systems

Most people watch the weather forecast on the news. It says that it should start raining around two and stop raining around six. But if we look at the full system, we see that there are many factors. We are trying to look at a complex system and extract the information that we need.

After it rains the water gets absorbed into the soil. It goes from the high ground to the low ground by way of rivers and streams. Water evaporates into the atmosphere. Then the water vapor starts to accumulate in the atmosphere. More and more accumulates until there is too much for the clouds to hold. It releases the water vapor by raining.

Whether it rains or not is dependent on many factors. The current winds, temperature and the amount of moisture all impact the system. In order for us to pull out the information that we want, we look at one aspect of a large, complex system.

U.S. Health Care System

By looking at past changes in Health Care Reform in the U.S. we can find this same linear thinking. The Affordable Care Act has altered the health care system. This is an example of what can happen when we attempt major system change. Doing this without understanding the complex systems involved results in a less effective system.

The initial focus was on rising costs. To address this, the U.S. government created a whole new system. One element that they wanted to adjust was the process of acquiring insurance. They didn't want the insurance companies denying people due to pre-existing conditions. But those individuals tended to result in high dollar claims. This means that by allowing them into the group, costs would go up for the insurance company.

The focus for reform was on the insurance industry. But the rising costs were only partly a result of the insurance industry. Allowing individuals likely to result in larger costs into the system means others have to subsidize that expense. Any gains from the insurance industry regulation became outweighed by the new expenses.

As we are finding out, the health care system is a very complex system. There are many factors involved. It is not as simple as seeing a problem and a solution. We aren't just implementing a solution. We are completely changing the system. Doing so has proven that effective system change requires a different type of thinking.

Example of Systems Thinking and Health Care

The new health care system was designed in a very specific way. It allows everyone to purchase insurance at a similar cost. It allows anyone, regardless of health history, to acquire this insurance.

Doing this means additional cost for the insurance companies. To keep costs low, the system says that everyone has to have insurance or pay a large fee. This forces healthy people into the system. This allows the insurance company to balance the costs. With healthy individuals forced to pay for expensive insurance (through the individual mandate), it raises the amount an insurance company brings in. The company can match the higher costs (allowing those with pre-existing conditions) with higher revenue (through the individual mandate).

But when a critic says that the individual mandate is unfair, they don't address the full system. They argue that forcing the young, healthy members of the pool to subsidize the expensive care of older, sicker members is wrong. Their argument is to get rid of the mandate. They are using linear thinking versus system thinking.

But what would happen in this complex system when the higher revenue for the insurance company goes away? Without the individual mandate, they would have less money coming in with more going out. Therefore, they raise the premium for everyone. As this happens it becomes more expensive. Costs rise over time.

One thing that has come out of the Affordable Care Act and Health Care Reform in the U.S. is that addressing the cost of health care is very complex. We can't improve the system by tweaking one or two aspects. Any change that is made will have benefits and consequences throughout the system.

Disrupting Complex Systems

It doesn’t take an expert in systems thinking to see that there will be some huge problems created by disrupting a complex system. Making changes to one element doesn't single out that element. That one element connects to other elements of the system. Adjusting one element, means change throughout the system. That is the difference in linear thinking versus systems thinking.

All Systems Contain Good and Bad

Because of the nature of a complex system, there are good things and bad things about any system. Supporters highlight certain elements and downplay others. Critics highlight other elements and downplay other points. This is easy to do with a complex system with many elements. But both groups are thinking linearly. They are highlighting parts of the system with disregard for how those parts connect throughout the system.

Impacts on Our Personal Goals

When we use systems to reach our goals, we should be aware of this type of thinking. If we want to save money but don’t pay for groceries today, we save money. But then tomorrow we will need to eat out, which generally costs more. So, saving money today brings added expense tomorrow.

If we want to lose weight, we may decide to exercise every night for 4 hours. We will have to understand how this disturbs the rest of our lives and families, otherwise we won’t continue. Instead of reaching out weight-loss goals, we likely find this disruption is too difficult to maintain.

Or, we start exercising and eating less. As we do, we grow hungrier. So, we find it harder to maintain a calorie deficit. We make it harder to reach our goals. Our efforts undermine our ambitions.

Systems Thinking Resources

I recommend evaluating your goals based on systems thinking. There are many books such as Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows and The Fifth Discipline by Peter Senge. These resources explain this way of thinking and how beneficial it can be. Then we can use systems thinking to improve our lives.

System Improvement

The other great thing about systems thinking is that you will see your goals impacted by trends in one area of your life. I can recall when I was quitting smoking. I was also trying to get healthier by working out and eating right. Coincidentally, I was taking vocal lessons at the time to learn how to sing.

I found that quitting smoking, exercising and eating right influenced my singing ability. Suddenly, I was seeing improvement in all areas because they were each impacting the other systems in positive way. I saw exponential growth in each area. I was addressing many aspects of each goal’s system rather than adjusting one aspect at a time.

Regardless of the goals you have or the situation you are in, start to evaluate the complex systems around each goal. You may discover that change is easy once you address the various factors around the goal. Only then can you get a glimpse of the complex system underlying your goals. By using systems thinking instead of linear thinking you can unlock new ways to grow and improve your life.

Examples of Systems thinking versus linear thinking:

Making errors on a crucial logistics form

Linear thinking – At work we ran into a problem. We had a logistics coordinator who was developing routes for drivers. As he did, he often flubbed the worksheet we used. Each time this happened, his supervisor told him he needed to do a better job staying focused. But the error happened again and again.

Systems thinking – To better address the issue, we changed the worksheet. We made it foolproof. We limited his ability to make mistakes on the form. If he did, it wouldn’t let him keep developing the route. By changing the full system, we were able to structure it in a way where his error was almost impossible to make.

Wanting to eat healthier

Linear thinking – Years ago I wanted to lose weight. So, I did what most people do. I started to eliminate the unhealthy food in my life. I started to go to the grocery store with the idea that I wouldn’t buy anything healthy. Instead I bought salads.

That didn’t go so well. I didn’t look at the full system of nutrition. I bought salads but dislike eating salads. Instead of eating healthy, I was avoiding eating anything until I grew hungry and then went through a drive through. Instead of getting healthy I managed to gain weight and hurt my health.

Systems thinking – I finally started to see the full system around my health. Instead of expecting a perfect diet, I slowly learned to include vegetables in my meals. Then I would cut out some extra calories from dressings, condiments, cheese, fatty meat etc. I started to change the way I approached food. I addressed the systems around nutrition instead of focusing on one element.

Relationships

Linear thinking – A friend of mine was growing tired from being single. He signed up for a dating app but didn’t have much success. He couldn’t understand why he had such a difficult time finding someone to spend more time with.

Systems thinking – Eventually he did find someone who he fell in love with and married. But he realized that he had to change first. He couldn’t be selfish. He couldn’t expect his significant other to constantly change to meet his needs. He learned how to compromise. He learned how to think of her needs too. He started to look at the overall system around his relationships and realized he wasn’t creating an environment where a relationship could flourish.

Saving Money

Linear thinking – After I started my business, I found myself with quite a bit of debt. I kept thinking that I simply needed more income. So, I did whatever I could to bring in more money. But as I did, I spent more and more. The more I brought in the more I spent on the business.

Systems thinking – I started to look at the full scope of the business. I realized that there were areas that I was buying equipment that didn’t result in additional revenue. It was nice to have the equipment but wasn’t necessary. Eventually I developed a thorough process of evaluation that I used whenever I thought I needed some new piece of equipment. This allowed me to continue to invest back into the business. But I did so without pouring money into the business that wasn’t resulting in a better business.

Are There Benefits to Linear Thinking Vs Systems Thinking?

For more information the benefits of linear thinking, click here.

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