Linear thinking can lead to stupidity

There is a difference between systems thinking and linear thinking. Systems thinking looks at the full situation to better understand how the elements all interconnect. Linear thinking skips the complexity and looks at part of the full system, usually two variables.

Linear thinking makes sense in some situations. If a car is speeding towards you, you want to come to the conclusion that you should move as fast as possible. No analysis needed.

But too many people in the world rely solely on linear thinking. They rely on emotion and quick thinking to make all decisions. This leads to a short-sighted approach that can cause one to make horrible choices.

We are living in some crazy times. At times it seems like the world has gone crazy. U.S. politics are more divided than ever. The COVID pandemic is destroying economies and killing people.

The answer is NOT to stop thinking through these things. It isn’t to turn on the news and panic. We need to take the information available, make the best decision and move on.

Yet time and again I speak with someone who makes a stupid comment about these things. I don’t mean that they make a comment that I disagree with. I mean they say something that is completely false.

They say something that is completely untrue. They believe it because it was said by someone famous. Or they heard it on the news. Or a friend told them. Regardless, they ignore the complexity but in doing so remain ignorant.

In How Luck Happens – Using the Science of Luck to Transform Work, Love, and Life, author Janice Kaplan says, “Psychologists talk about heuristics, meaning the mental shortcuts we use to make decisions. Looking at statistics, facts, and optimal answers is often very complicated, so we resort to simpler methods. The comment of a friend, a story on the news, or a vague intuition becomes enough to influence what we think. The problem is that we may use the heuristic that works in one situation to solve another, and sometimes they lead to the wrong conclusions.”

It isn’t that we can never take mental shortcuts. It is that too often we rely on shortcuts instead of doing the work to become educated.

This doesn’t mean that we all have to vote for the same person or believe the same thing. It means that we take the information and think it through before we assume it is true.

Because avoiding that step leaves us vulnerable. We get taken advantage of. We ignore all the other data points. We accept our view as absolute. We don’t change when contradictory information comes out.

Understanding that you might be wrong is important to make sure you don’t take shortcuts when making decisions. If we assume that we are always right, then we become stupid. If we realize we might be wrong, we search for better information. This informs our decisions, and we strive to be more knowledgeable.

These shortcuts are thinking linearly. By thinking systematically, we see the full picture. We better understand how the elements all connect.

For either candidate there are pros and cons. Taking the country in either direction means some things will be better and some things will be worse.

The pandemic doesn’t care what people believe. Understanding how it transfers from person to person can help make the right decisions for you. Knowing your vulnerability will help determine your comfortable level of risk to take.

Then, if you decide to take great risk you can do so understanding what you are risking. If you decide to hold back and play it safe, you know what you are sacrificing. You may be ok making the sacrifice. Either way it is your choice and you educated yourself before choosing.

But most people make stupid decisions and use resulting to judge their decision. Resulting means that we use the outcome to judge our decision.

But the problem is that resulting isn’t the best to judge one’s decision. Make the same decision 10 times and it might work out 2 times and not work out 8 times. Just because this time it worked out doesn’t mean taking the risk was a good decision. Just because it doesn’t work out this time, doesn’t make the decision the wrong one.

Life is complex. We have to take mental shortcuts at times. But don’t let that be the only way forward. Be willing to see the full system. Be willing to dive in and get more information. This will help you improve your decision-making and avoid making stupid decisions.